Crime and perception: Religion, public safety and the 2024 elections

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On the second day of the recent Republican National Convention the theme was “Make America Safe Again.”

Addressing those gathered in Milwaukee, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican and evangelical, warned against the threat the “radical left” posed to what he said were long-held American “principles of faith, family and freedom.”

Linking those principles to Americans’ safety, Johnson promised Republicans would remain “the law and order team.”

“We always have been — and we always will be — the advocates for the rule of law,” Johnson said.

But since the beginning of 2024, violent crime is down across the U.S. According to the FBI, there was a 15% overall decline in violent crime over the last several months and decreases in the rates of murder and rape (nearly 26%), robbery (18%), property crime (15%) and aggravated assault (12%).

Why then do more than half (54%) of U.S. voters — and nearly three-fourths (74%) of registered Republicans — consider crime a “major factor” in their considerations of who will be president?

Part of that, as CBS News’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez explains, is due to perceptions about the danger of incoming immigrants and increased numbers of encounters along the U.S.-Mexico border.

But as this edition of ReligionLink explores, religious adherence can also help explain the fear factor ahead of November’s elections and why Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump has much to gain from Americans’ anxiety around crime and public safety in 2024.

Background and statistics

A growing share of Americans say reducing crime should be a top priority for federal and local governments. And according to Gallup, 63% of Americans describe the crime problem in the U.S. as either extremely or very serious, the highest they have ever recorded. More than three-quarters of Americans (77%) believe there is more crime in the U.S. than just one year ago. Just over half (55%) feel the same about crime in their area.

And yet, violent and property crime rates are at their lowest levels since at least 1993, data from the FBI shows.

The problem, it seems, is a matter of perception.

Robert Jones, president of the Public Religion Research Institute and an author of books on white supremacy in American Christianity, told The Associated Press’ Peter Smith that the strong evangelical support Trump enjoys goes far beyond his position on culture war issues. In fact, according to a 2023 PRRI poll, fewer than half of white evangelicals said abortion was a critical issue. More than half said that five others were, however, including human trafficking, public schools, rising prices, immigration and crime.

“One of the biggest myths about white evangelical support for Trump is this idea that it’s really about abortion and they’re holding their nose and voting for Trump,” Jones told AP. The slogan “Make America Great Again” echoes an “ethno-religious vision of a white Christian America, just barely underneath the surface,” Jones said.

Studies have shown that Christians in particular believe there is a higher crime rate — 69% of all “practicing Christians” and 81% of evangelicals — and that religiosity is correlated with higher levels of “punitiveness,” the desire to see criminals punished for their crimes because of a perceived evil or moral failure, belief in rising crime rates or fear of violence.

Concern about crime is not limited to white evangelical Christians, of course. Black and Latino Christians in the U.S. are concerned about issues such as urban decay and juvenile crime, as well as higher rates of incarceration and recidivism within their respective communities. Faith leaders are often vocal about what they believe to be the roots of these issues — and what they hope might solve them.

Religion and gun ownership

Research has also revealed correlations between theological conservativism and handgun ownership, with evangelicals more likely to own handguns than mainline Protestants. At the same time, research has also been done that shows that Americans who attend religious services more frequently than others tend to be more supportive of stricter gun laws and that religion tends to have a deterring influence on attitudes and behavioral markers that may lead to the commission of a crime.

Groups such as the Center for American Progress say that, driven by both a sense of ethical obligation and concern for local safety, religious communities can play a significant role in efforts to reduce gun violence, including by advocating for common-sense gun reform.

Anti-religious hate crimes

Another aspect of this storyline to be explored is crimes against religious communities themselves.

Religious actors have both been the target of, and at times have been part of perpetrating, attacks on religious persons and sacred sites. From hostage situations to graffiti and vandalism, toppled gravestones to active shooters or bombings, extreme acts against places of worship extend across faiths.

While overall crime statistics have been down, the last year has seen an increase in hate crimes in U.S. cities such as New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Phoenix. According to data released by the Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism at California State University, hate crimes rose once more in 2023 to a total of 2,184, a nearly 13% increase from 2022, driven in part by escalations in anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim attacks related to the war in Gaza. Attacks on Sikhs also remained high.

Professor Brian Levin, who founded the center, told USA Today the increase in hate crimes despite a nationwide decrease in violent crimes in 2022 demonstrates the persistence of bias-motivated crimes.

Reporters might consider exploring how minoritized religious communities are continuing to address such crimes: ramping up security, taking on additional insurance or undergoing training offered by public safety officers and national authorities such as the FBI. Furthermore, in its research on Muslim American perceptions of crime and public safety, PRRI concluded, there is an “ongoing need for consideration of religious perceptions and perspectives (particularly those of religious minorities) as a part of the broader public reckoning on issues of race, crime, and policing in the United States.”

At the very least, the statistics point to the need for nuanced, careful reporting on religion, safety and crime — starting with perceptions, but also including how religious actors and communities are addressing concerns about public safety around the U.S. alongside — and sometimes in tension with — local police forces, city governments and courts.

Related newswriting

Experts and sources

  • Amy Adamczyk

    Amy Adamczyk is professor of sociology at John Jay College in New York City. Her research includes religion, deviance and crime, sociological theory, sexuality and health.

  • Vaughn Baker

    Vaughn Baker is the President of Strategos International, a global firm specializing in security training, consulting and executive protection services. With over 25 years of law enforcement experience under his belt, Baker’s expertise includes patrol, investigation, SWAT and special operations. Media Contact is Myron Ashley.

  • American Jewish Committee

    The American Jewish Committee is an international think tank and advocacy organization that works to identify and fight antisemitism and bigotry, protect human rights and protect Israel and Jewish life everywhere. Its executive director is Ted Deutch. Contact via Jon Schweitzer, managing director of marketing and communications.

  • Anti-Defamation League

    The Anti-Defamation League tracks discrimination based on religion. ADL has 30 regional offices. Check with local ADL officials for a breakdown on the number and type of antisemitic incidents in your area and for leads on interfaith initiatives.

  • Center for American Progress

    The Center for American Progress is a nonpartisan institute that promotes freedom and justice in a wide variety of issues. Daniella Gibbs Leger is the executive vice president of communications and strategy.

  • Council on American-Islamic Relations

    The Council on American-Islamic Relations says it is the largest advocacy group for Muslims in the U.S. It advocates for Muslims on issues related to civil liberties and justice. Contact communications director Ibrahim Hooper in Washington, D.C.

  • Shane Claiborne

    Shane Claiborne is a Philadelphia-based Christian activist and author. He is a co-founder of Red Letter Christians, a Christian group that focuses on people at the economic and social margins.

  • Karen Clifton

    Karen Clifton is an executive committee member for Catholic Prison Ministries Coalition. She also is the executive director of the Catholic Mobilizing Network.

  • Keith Ellison

    Keith Ellison is the attorney general of Minnesota and the first African American and first Muslim to be elected to statewide office in Minnesota. In March 2021, Ellison co-authored a USA Today column titled “Stand together to fight anti-Asian hate. We all have a stake in a more inclusive America.”

  • Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission

    The Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission is the public policy arm of the Southern Baptist Convention. Hannah Daniel is the commission’s director of public policy.

  • Byron R. Johnson

    Byron R. Johnson is a professor of sociology at Baylor University in Waco, Texas, who has written widely on the relationship between religion and criminal behavior. He is the author of the entry “The Role of Religious Institutions in Responding to Crime and Delinquency” in The Oxford Handbook of the Sociology of Religion.

  • Sylvester A. Johnson

    Sylvester A. Johnson is founding director of the Virginia Tech Center for Humanities and a humanities scholar specializing in the study of technology, race, religion and national security.

  • Robert P. Jones

    Robert P. Jones is president and founder of Public Religion Research Institute, or PRRI. He has written several books, including White Too Long: The Legacy of White Supremacy in American Christianity, which won a 2021 American Book Award.

  • Chunrye Kim

    Chunrye Kim is an associate professor of sociology and criminal justice at St. Joseph’s University in Philadelphia, specializing in studying various aspects of violence within intimate relationships, such as intimate partner violence, stalking and violence against women. She also examines other angles related to these issues, including community-based intervention policies and religion.

  • Jason Lydon

    The Rev. Jason Lydon is minister at Second Unitarian Church of Chicago. Lydon joined other faith leaders outside praying for the early release of prisoners amid the pandemic and has been active on other fronts related to criminal justice reform.

  • Lucy McBath

    Rep. Lucy McBath, D-Ga., serves in the U.S. House of Representatives. She entered politics after her son, Jordan Davis, was shot and killed in 2012. Before her election to Congress, McBath led faith outreach for Everytown for Gun Safety and Moms Demand Action.

    Contact: 202-225-4501.

  • Keramet Reiter

    Keramet Reiter is a professor of criminology at the University of California Irvine. Reiter studies prisons, prisoner rights and the impact of prisons and policy.

  • Heather Rice-Minus

    Heather Rice-Minus is the president and CEO of Prison Fellowship, a Christian ministry that serves the incarcerated, the recently released and their families. Contact Rice-Minus through Prison Fellowship’s website.

  • Robert L. Schreiwer

    Robert L. Schreiwer is the founder — and clergy member — of the heathen tradition of Urglaawe. He is also the manager of Huginn’s Heathen Hof and manager of Heathens Against Hate. He was formerly the leader of The Troth (2016-2019), an international heathen organization based in the United States. He founded In-Reach Heathen Prison Services, which is now a program within The Troth, and its counterpart for mental health facility visitations.

  • Melvina Sumter

    Melvina Sumter is an associate professor of sociology and criminal justice at Old Dominion University. Her research has included religion in prisons, religion and prisoner rehabilitation, and the relationship between religion and crime reduction.

  • Irene Zempi

    Irene Zempi is an associate professor in criminology at Nottingham Trent University. Zempi is also chair of the British Society of Criminology Hate Crime Network, the lead of the NTU Hate Crime Research Group. She has published multiple books on Islamophobia.

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